In five days the road to the European Championships in Poland and the Ukraine will end and the nations participating will be known, only four spots remain as the play-offs are set to kick-off Friday with the return legs commencing on Tuesday. The match-ups are all intriguing with each having their own side story attached for added drama. The favorites are obvious but nothing is ever a guarantee in football.
Bosnia-Herzegovina over Portugal (2-1 on aggregate)
Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, unfortunately Portugal will suffer the humiliation of not even being invited to the wedding at Euro 2012. The Portuguese have been on the cusp of achieving something major in international football for quite some time. The much-hyped "Golden Generation" produced some exquisite players but failed to bring home any silverware. They have been below-par in qualifying, losing to Denmark on the final day has handed Portugal the difficult task of beating a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina team that were just twelve minutes away from a miraculous upset victory in the Stade de France which would have seen them win the group.
Paulo Bento has clashed with his players since taking charge; Ricardo Carvalho and more recently Jose Bosingwa have temporarily retired from the squad due to conflicts with the manager. Cristiano Ronaldo will have to shoulder much of the burden and step up his game tremendously for Portugal to advance, never the same player for country as he is for club. Portugal will need the Real Madrid Ronaldo to make an appearance in both legs. Bosnia is tough to break down especially on home soil, losing 2-0 to France was their only defeat, and one other goal breached their goal-line in the remaining home fixtures.
Normally you hope to host the return leg but in Bosnia's case getting off to a great start at home is most important to gain confidence. They lost both legs 1-0 in the playoffs for the 2010 World Cup to Portugal so a quick start is vital for progression. Give them the edge defensively; Asmir Begovic is of higher standard in goal over his counterpart Rui Patricio. Going the opposite way Portugal have superior attacking options than the Bosnians, especially in mid-field but still are missing that expert marksman to put the ball into the back of the net. Both legs will be low scoring and extremely tight, but Bosnia have the X-factor in Edin Dzeko. The Manchester City striker is in tremendous form and will be very difficult to keep quiet. Revenge will be on his mind, never wanting to re-live another failure at this stage, I see him scoring the crucial goal that will gain his country qualification to their first major tournament.
Turkey over Croatia (3-1 on aggregate)
Another heartbreaking defeat is on the horizon for Croatia at the hands of Guus Hiddink's revamped Turkey. It will be the second time the Croats will be knocked out of European competition by their Turkish opponents following the loss in 2008, taking the lead with only one minute of normal time left in the quarterfinal, victory was moments away. Remarkably Semih Senturk tied the score deep into injury time to force penalty kicks in which Turkey prevailed. It was an absolute gem of a match, instantly becoming a classic for football lovers. But was a disastrous end for Slaven Bilic's side following a great qualifying campaign and an undefeated record in the group stages. Revenge is definitely on the minds of everyone dressed in the famous red and white checkers of Croatia.
Turkey had suffered through some difficulties in qualifying but managed to hold off the improved Belgians to clinch second spot. Hiddink's biggest blip was a humiliating away defeat to minnows Azerbaijan, and more alarming winning only one match from five on the road. Croatia had similar slip ups to weaker opposition, losing to Georgia earlier this year, but earning just a single point out of six to eventual group winners Greece is the main reason for having to qualify through the play-offs. Looking purely at the statistics Croatia should be able to get by Turkey and earn some much needed revenge. Undefeated at home in qualifying and surrendering just seven goals in ten matches, it is very difficult to look past the numbers. Consider Turkey's low goal production, all signs point to a play-off exit for Hiddink's men. But I do believe in this case the statistics will not mirror the eventual final result.
This probably will be Turkey's last hurrah under Hiddink and the Dutchman is not accustomed to failure. Arda Turan will be looked at to lead the charge by his manager, for Croatia Luka Modric will shoulder the bulk of the load, both are in fantastic form at the moment. Istanbul and Zagreb respectively provide an intimidating atmosphere to play in so it will come down to which team can score more goals on home turf. I gave the edge to Turkey because of their tendency to rise to the occasion when the chips are stacked against them, if anyone can motivate a group of players to achieve greatness I can think of none other better than Hiddink. A big win in the first leg will catapult Turkey into qualification.
Montenegro over Czech Republic (1-0 on aggregate)
Eight years ago the Czech Republic were being touted as an up and coming football powerhouse on the international scene, watching their free-fall has been quite shocking. It all started back in Portugal and the loss to eventual 2004 European champions Greece, losing by the horrible silver goal rule right at the death. A bitter pill to swallow considering Czech football was at an all-time high, the shocking defeat started a negative ripple effect that has yet to fully settle. Qualification started on a sour note with a home loss to Lithuania, not the ideal start. Unlucky to be drawn in the same group as Spain, the Czech's luck appeared when it mattered most, at Hampden Park during an important encounter with Scotland. Awarded a penalty following a blatant dive by Jan Rezek, the spot kick was converted giving them a crucial share of the points. This result played a direct role in qualifying ahead of the Scots.
Montenegro has a roster full of gritty battle-hardened players that form an impenetrable force behind the ball, not much was considering their short existence on the international stage. Blessed with a solid core of experience and youth, The Brave Falcons defied the odds and finished above the likes of Switzerland and Bulgaria en-route to the play-offs. It was far from an entertaining brand of football but effective in achieving their objective. The obvious spot of weakness is scoring goals, only seven in eight matches, makes you wonder how they got this far with such a low tally. However their weapon is on the defensive end, suffocating their opponent’s style of play, forcing opponents to make mistakes, giving them opportunities to score on the counter attack. Just ask Wayne Rooney about how frustrating it can be playing against that type of system.
Petr Cech is determined to start the first leg despite recovering from broken nose suffered on the weekend. He looks like a bionic goalkeeper from the future after being fitted with a face mask, complimenting the head gear which has now become his trademark. The veteran keeper will be relied on heavily by his team-mates to lead from the back and keep the defensive line from being breached. Montenegro is more capable of poaching a road goal rather than surrendering in Podgorica, the hostile atmosphere makes things much more difficult for any visiting team. Stevan Jovetic will play a major role in earning his country a spot in Euro 2012, a tremendous accomplishment for this small nation of just over a half million, makes it even more remarkable this was all done in five years after being granted membership into FIFA.
Ireland over Estonia (3-1 on aggregate)
The luck of the Irish has rarely sided with The Boys in Green on the football pitch. How can we forget the intentional handball by Thierry Henry, which led to the winning goal, denying Ireland a much deserved spot in South Africa. FIFA will never escape that PR nightmare after the Irish were unjustly eliminated. However under Giovanni Trapattoni the team has put together a respectable record, losers of eight in all competitions under the Italian. It would have been a major disappointment not to finish in the top two places in the group, with Russia and Slovakia being the biggest threat, although Armenia surprisingly finished third. Strength away from home has been an added weapon, undefeated in qualifying, surrendering a single goal in the process.
The award for the biggest surprise in qualifying definitely goes to Estonia, miraculously finishing second behind Italy to earn one of the coveted eight play-off spots. No one would have ever predicted the new hero's of Tallinn to better Serbia, Slovenia or even Northern Ireland for that matter. Taking nothing away from Estonia, progression to the next phase was more to due with the under achievements of others rather than their own good form, but manager Tarmo Ruutli did guide his side to shocking away victories against the three sides that finished directly below them which was a massive shock, showing the squad is capable of handling the pressure. The 3-1 win in Serbia was most impressive because of the intimidating atmosphere Belgrade provides.
What a Cinderella story it would be if Estonia some how managed to eliminate the Irish, improbable yes, but nothing is impossible. Ireland will hobble into the first leg without the services of Leon Best and Shane Long; both are out due to injuries. This is coupled by the absence of Kevin Doyle through suspension. But Trapattoni can rely on the in form Jonathan Walters or Simon Cox to partner Robbie Keane up front, and with Shay Given in net it is hard to see another Irish failure on the horizon. Estonia are delighted to have made it this far but should not be overlooked, anything can happen over two-legs. Unfortunately for The Blue Shirts they will be up against an experienced veteran keeper in Given who will be the difference. Both nations finished with fifteen goals scored, however Estonia allowed twice as many against than their opponents. Dublin will be a great place to be come Tuesday when Ireland books their spot to Euro 2012.
Check back next week for a new edition of The Unfit Referee
No comments:
Post a Comment